A food chain/web is a linear sequence of links in a food web starting from a species that are called producers in the web and ends at a species that is called decomposers species in the web. A food chain/web also show how the organismes are related with each-other by the food they eat. A food chain differs from a food web, because the complex polyphagous network of feeding relations are aggregated into trophic species and the chain only follows linear monophagous pathways. A common metric used to quantify food web trophic structure is food chain length. In its simplest form, the length of a chain is the number of links between a trophic consumer and the base of the web and the mean chain length of an entire web is the arithmetic average of the lengths of all chains in a food web.
Food chains were first introduced by the African-Arab scientist and philosopher Al-Jahiz in the 9th century and later popularized in a book published in 1927 by Charles Elton, which also introduced the food web concept.
Food chains are directional paths of trophic energy or, equivalently, sequences of links that start with basal species, such as producers or fine organic matter, and end with consumer organisms.
The food chain’s length is a continuous variable that provides a measure of the passage of energy and an index of ecological structure that increases in value counting progressively through the linkages in a linear fashion from the lowest to the highest trophic (feeding) levels.
Food chains are often used in ecological modeling (such as a three species food chain). They are simplified abstractions of real food webs, but complex in their dynamics and mathematical implications. Ecologists have formulated and tested hypotheses regarding the nature of ecological patterns associated with food chain length, such as increasing length increasing with ecosystem size, reduction of energy at each successive level, or the proposition that long food chain lengths are unstable. Food chain studies have had an important role in ecotoxicology studies tracing the pathways and biomagnification of environmental contaminants.
Food chains vary in length from three to six or more levels. A food chain consisting of a flower, a frog, a snake and an owl consists of four levels; whereas a food chain consisting of grass, a grasshopper, a rat, a snake and finally a hawk consists of five levels.
Producers, such as plants, are organisms that utilize solar energy or heat energy to synthesize starch. All food chains must start with a producer. In the deep sea, food chains centered around hydrothermal vents exist in the absence of sunlight. Chemosynthetic bacteria and archaea can use hydrogen sulfide from hydrothermal vents as an energy source (just as plants use sunlight) to produce carbohydrates; they form the base of the food chain. Consumers are organisms that eat other organisms: in most food chains, all the organisms in a food chain are consumers. In a deep-sea food chain, tube worms, clams, and mussels harbor the chemosynthetic bacteria and make use of the food they produce. They are all eaten by crabs, which in turn they may consumed by an octopus.
This is a review of a 108 page Swiss forensic report on the death of Yasser Arafat and an analysis of his remains. It was reported to TMO at the time of Arafat’s exhumation but due to a technical error was not printed at that time.
Al Jazeera has done a great service by “republishing†a quite technical but dispassionate report online of the belated impartial autopsy of the late Yasser Arafat. My intent on this page is not a critical one, but rather to summarize the authors’ very technical findings in examining the body with its effects after eight years in the grave to determine if there is some merit to the accusation of foul play. This independent investigation indicates death by poisoning. The Swiss team of forensic scientists succinctly conclude that their research upon the remains of President Yasser Arafat of the Palestinian National Authority “moderately†implicate that his death was due to poisoning.
At the time, a month before his passing, on the evening of October 12th 2004 President Yasser Arafat developed acute gastrointestinal discomfiture which preceded his death one month later on November 11th 2004.
The hypothesis — at that time — pointed to an illness consisting of gastrointestinal deterioration with development of severe thrombocytopenia. (This was often accompanied with a decrease of platelets in the blood often with malaise, fatigue and weakness.) Further, there were disseminated intravascular coagulation, cholestasis icterus (jaundice-like symptoms) and eventually intracerebral hemorrhage (i.e., diseased blood vessel(s) within the brain burst). The clinical investigations performed just after his death did not have the sophisticated forensic tools that have unfolded over the last decade; and, therefore, could not yield as accurate a diagnosis as today.
It was urged eight years after his death to exhume his body (completed on November 27th 2012) when new toxicological and radio—toxicological investigations were able to be performed away from the hostile Israeli observation; and, thus, to be independently undertaken which demonstrated unexpectedly high levels of Polonium–210 and Lead-210 activity in many of his analyzed specimens. (Clothing and other personal effects of his last month of life were, also, inspected.)
Their results moderately support the proposition that the cause of death was poisoning by Polonium-210.
Thus, although it has been nine years since his death, this very technical independent Report supports — by its evidence — that the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, was murdered through a subtle radioactive (assassination-) poison which must have been administered clandestinely in 2004.
Almost certainly it was the Israeli Mossad (external spy agency) who did the excruciatingly inhumane deed of dispatch. At the time, though, it was assumed that only the Russians had the technology for low grade “dirty†radioactive personal weapons, but the Israelis had the stockpiles of fissile waste to theoretically produce them. The use of radioactive poisoning was favored then because it was new, and, thereby, hard to trace. It took eight years for the technology to track it became available. Hence, the findings have to be tentative because of the elapsed time, and, if the exact culprit could be found, it would be difficult to get a conviction even though the evidence points in the evil direction of Tel Aviv’ clandestine services.
Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi of Pakistan (L) speaks with Rohan Bopanna of India (R) compete during their men’s doubles semi-final match at the recent APIA Sydney International tennis tournament. – AFP
Pakistani tennis star Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi and his Indian doubles partner Rohan Bopanna have reunited on the tennis court. The duo known best by the nickname “The Indo-Pak Express†finished as runners-up in the men’s doubles event of the Apia International Tournament in Sydney, Australia. This was only the second tournament that they had played together since splitting up as a doubles team at the end of the 2011 tennis season.
Qureshi and Bopanna scored an easy win over the team of Lukas Rosol and Joao Sousa in the semifinals with a 6-1, 6-2 score in only 44 minutes. However, the third-seeded Indo-Pak Express took on the top seeds Daniel Nestor of Canada and Nenad Zimonjic of Serbia in the finals. And it ended up being quite a battle, with Bopanna and Qureshi going down in two tie breakers, 7-6, 7-6.
This was the last tune-up before the first Grand Slam tournament of the 2014 tennis season, the Australian Open. The prior week they won one round before going down in the quarter finals in Chennai, India. Bopanna, for his part, believes this is just the beginning of the Indo-Pak’s return to prominence. “Aisam and I have matured. Playing with other partners we got to know our strengths and weaknesses. I’m sure we’ll be a force to reckon with,†he told the press.
Pittsburgh Steelers Director of Football Administration Omar Khan is a prime candidate for the open General Manager position with the Miami Dolphins. The 36-year-old Khan is a native of New Orleans, and a graduate of Tulane University in New Orleans with a degree in Sports Management. Khan is the child of a mother from Honduras and a father from Pakistan.
Khan originally worked with the Tulane football team as an Undergraduate Assistant. Following his time with the Tulane Football program, Khan served as a Scouting/Personnel Intern with the New Orleans Saints. Upon graduation in 1997, he was brought on in a full-time role by the Saints. He ultimately worked his way up the ladder in New Orleans, before joining the Pittsburgh Steelers as Football Administration Coordinator from 2001-2011. Khan was promoted to Director of Football Administration with the Steelers in 2011.
Last offseason Khan was a finalist for the General Manager job with the New York Jets, with the job ultimately going to John Idzik. With the Steelers, Khan has helped assemble a pair of Super Bowl championship teams. With the Saints, he was part of a division championship and the first ever playoff win in franchise history in 2000. It had commonly been thought that Khan would accompany former Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Bill Cowher wherever he were to coach next. But it appears that Khan’s personnel skills will take him to his next gig before Cowher makes his coaching return to the National Football League.
“Muslims Fast on Regular Basis:†Mustafa Carroll of CAIR-Texas
“We must grant a faster track for the ‘Dreamers’, brought to this country as children through no faults of their own; to those who have defended USA serving in our armed forces; and to the agricultural workers, who are essential part of our communities and work so hard for provide our nations’ food supply.â€
These were sentiments expressed, at the Town Hall Meeting, held at the Catholic Charities downtown Houston, by Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee, a Senior Member of the House Judiciary and Homeland Security Committee, regarding the passing of the Immigration Reform Bill.
Several individuals’, who have benefited from the efforts of Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee Office in avoiding deportations spoke about their ordeal and need to have comprehensive immigration reform, so that people can live productive, happy, and healthy lives with their loved ones. Several community leaders and immigration activists were present and spoke on the occasion including Gordon Quan the former City Councilperson, Mustafa Carroll the Director of CAIR-Texas (Council On American-Islamic Relations), Mehmet Okamus president of the Turkish Center, Saeed Sheikh the Former President of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce, Nargis Fatima of the Democratic Muslim Caucus of Texas, Rahman Moton of Myanmar Chamber of Commerce, and many others.
“I am fasting and will fast again until the comprehensive immigration legislation is not passed, to establish a path to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants in this country, as well as protecting the border, as envisaged in HR 1417. I encourage people across USA, and if & when my constituents fast, they should call other Congresspersons & Senators that they are fasting for comprehensive immigration legislation; and need serious commitment from your elected officials to support this initiative.â€
“Dreamers grew up in the United States, but were brought here through no fault of their own. Nearly 300,000 Dreamers have been granted legal status in the past year, giving them the ability to live in our communities by working and going to college without fear of deportation. Most of the Americans agree that we need a comprehensive immigration reform plan that includes a pathway to citizenship. As per the Center for American Progress, if carried out thoughtfully and fairly, comprehensive immigration reform can offer major benefits for our economy, with growth in GDP by a cumulative increase of $832 Billion and 121,000 new jobs over 10 years.†Added the Honorable Congresswoman.
A member of the Swiss Guard unlocks a door to the Sistine Chapel during U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s tour of the Vatican January 14, 2014. Kerry traveled to the Vatican to meet Secretary of State of the Holy See Pietro Parolin for talks on Tuesday on the Middle East and other foreign policy issues, the State Department said.
REUTERS/Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Pool
VATICAN CITY (Reuters) – Pope Francis on Monday called for renewed political will to end the conflict in Syria and lamented a “general indifference†to the plight of refugees around the world.
In his first “State of the World†address to diplomats from 180 countries accredited to the Vatican, Francis also spoke of his concern over violence in Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt and parts of Africa.
“What is presently needed is a renewed political will to end the conflict,†the pope said of the civil war in Syria which has killed more than 100,000 people, forced more than 2 million to flee abroad and displaced another 4 million inside the country.
“At the same time, full respect for humanitarian law remains essential. It is unacceptable that unarmed civilians, especially children, become targets,†he said.
In his yearly address, the head of the 1.2-billion-member Roman Catholic Church said he hoped the Geneva 2 conference due on January 22 under U.N. auspices “will mark the beginning of the desired peace process.
He lamented that many people in the Middle East and Africa were living as “refugees in camps where they are no longer seen as persons but as nameless statisticsâ€.
The world had forgotten those who risked their lives in rickety boats to seek a better life in Europe, he said.
In October, 366 Eritreans drowned in a shipwreck near the Italian island of Lampedusa. Sea arrivals to Italy from north Africa more than tripled in 2013, fuelled by Syria’s civil war and strife in the Horn of Africa.
“Sadly, there is a general indifference in the face of these tragedies, which is a dramatic sign of the loss of that sense of responsibility for our brothers and sisters on which every civil society is based,†he said.
The pope also spoke of his concern that conflicts in the Middle East and north Africa were fuelling “an exodus of Christians†fleeing because of fears for their safety.
Christians now comprise 5 percent of the population of the Middle East, down from 20 percent a century ago. According to some estimates, the current population of 12 million Christians in the Middle East could halve by 2020.
Francis made another appeal for respect for the environment. Quoting a popular saying in his native Argentina, he said: “God always forgives, we sometimes forgive, but when nature – creation – is mistreated, she never forgives.â€
(Reporting By Philip Pullella; Editing by Janet Lawrence)
BEIRUT (Reuters) – Al Qaeda-linked jihadists struck back against rival rebels in eastern and northern Syria on Friday after a week of internecine fighting among opponents of President Bashar al-Assad in which 500 people have been killed, a monitoring group said.
With less than two weeks to go before what is hoped will be the first peace talks between the opposition and Assad’s government, disparate opposition groups met for the first time in the Spanish city of Cordoba. They agreed to work together but did not agree who, if any of them, should attend the peace talks.
Nearly three years into a conflict that has driven a quarter of Syrians from their homes and killed more than 130,000 people, the opposition to Assad is fragmenting.
In rebel-held areas, other groups have turned against the al Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which aims to construct an Islamist caliphate straddling the border separating Syria and Iraq.
In a coordinated offensive, rival armed groups have seized several ISIL strongholds in Aleppo, on the border with Turkey, and further east in Raqqa, the only city fully under control of Assad’s foes.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said ISIL fighters pushed back the rival rebels on the eastern approaches of Raqqa on Friday. They also killed 20 fighters in the town of al-Bab, northeast of Aleppo, the UK-based monitoring group said.
Prospects for progress at the peace talks in Switzerland appear dim. Assad, buttressed by recent military gains and the worst rebel infighting since the civil war began, has ruled out demands from the weakened opposition that he stand aside.
Most rebels are opposed to the negotiations, known as Geneva 2, and the main opposition group in exile, the National Coalition, has delayed a final decision on whether to attend the talks until just days before their January 22 start date.
Members of the Coalition met for the first time on Friday with members of the Damascus-based opposition tolerated by Assad. Islamist rebel figures were also present at the meeting in Cordoba, part of an effort by Western backers to unify the opposition ahead of the Geneva talks.
The various groups agreed to set up a committee to coordinate Assad’s opponents but did not reach conclusions about whether to attend the peace talks. Their final communique repeated the demand Assad be excluded from any transition. Major Islamist and internal opposition groups did not attend.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Thursday he was not sure the conference would take place. Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood said conditions were not right to hold it because international powers had not done enough to ensure its success.
In a statement on Friday, the Brotherhood, which has members in the coalition, set out conditions for attending including release of detainees, opening humanitarian corridors to besieged areas and the withdrawal from Syria of Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters who back Assad.
Opposition figures from another coalition group, the Syrian National Council, have already said they will shun Geneva because world powers have not done enough to force Assad out.
With time running out until the talks, Western and Arab countries that oppose Assad will meet on Sunday in Paris. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will hold talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday, according to Russia’s Interfax news agency.
Moscow has emerged as Assad’s main international backer. Badr Jamous, secretary-general of the National Coalition, suggested that the opposition’s position on the peace talks depends on Moscow: “We don’t need Geneva 2 if Russia thinks Assad is going to remain in power,†Jamous told Reuters.
Syria’s conflict started with mostly peaceful protests in March 2011 against the president but turned into an armed insurgency and then civil war after Assad’s security forces cracked down forcefully on demonstrators.
DOZENS KILLED IN HOMS
The United Nations has said the talks should implement an international accord reached in Geneva 18 months ago that called for the establishment of a transitional body.
Assad’s supporters and opponents disagree over whether that means Assad must leave power. Information Minister Omran Zoabi said on Tuesday that Syrians wanted Assad to stand for re-election later this year, the strongest indication yet that he intends to extend his rule.
Damascus says the talks should focus on combating terrorists, the label it gives to anti-Assad fighters.
The Syrian leader faces little pressure to make concessions after a year of military and diplomatic gains that saw him recover rebel-held territory in the center of the country and Washington abandon a threat to launch military strikes.
The White House said on Friday that it was still reviewing how to resume shipments of non-lethal aid to moderate rebel groups, which was suspended after an incident last month in which Islamist fighters seized supplies from a warehouse.
“This has nothing to do with our support for the moderate military opposition, but rather the security of our assistance,†White House spokesman Jay Carney said at a briefing in Washington, adding that the United States has resumed non-lethal aid to “civilian actors†in northern Syria.
In the latest fighting, forces loyal to Assad killed dozens of rebel fighters who tried to break an army siege of the central city of Homs.
Thirty-seven rebels were killed by the army, the state controlled SANA news agency said, without giving a figure for losses among Assad’s forces. The Observatory said at least 45 rebels were surrounded and killed as they left the old city of Homs late on Wednesday and early Thursday.
Assad’s forces have surrounded rebels for more than a year in Homs. They have also pushed back rebel forces from nearby rural areas that had formed part of their supply lines.
Opposition fighters outside Homs protested against their own leaders in anger over the killings, a video uploaded by activists showed. Fighters in the countryside said they might have prevented the deaths if their leaders had let them attack the city, and accused commanders of taking funds from foreign allies without running an effective campaign.
“These people who died, who is to blame? We are! They say Homs is under siege, that there’s no way to Homs. That’s not true. There is a way from the north,†one rebel shouted. “The whole campaign they launched here (in the countryside) is just so they can collect money.â€
(Additional reporting by Oliver Holmes in Cordoba, Spain, Gabriela Baczysnka in Moscow, Dasha Afanasieva in Istanbul, Erika Solomon in Beirut and Roberta Rampton in Washington; Editing by Peter Graff and Andrew Hay)
Everyone should have advance directives in their estate plan. Advance directives describe your specific treatment preferences in end-of-life situations when you are not in a position to decide for yourself. One type of advance directive is a living will. This document leaves written instructions for your medical care. Another advance directive – the health care power of attorney – authorizes someone else to speak for you if you become incapacitated. These, and other documents, put you in control of what can often be complex and problematic situations.
Reasonably, individuals and their families may have concerns about the effect of advance directives. This article addresses two of the most common concerns and offers practical solutions:
(1) Will Advance Directives Fully Address My Needs and Desires?
Many people may have concern that advance directives are too vague to cover every possible scenario they may face. Typically, these documents, if not done professionally, can be vague and contain too much gray area for health care providers and families to make informed decisions for an individual.
One way to get over the vagueness in advance directives is to customize your living will. Merely having a document may not solve the problem – they often do not spell it all out. Laura Johannes wrote in the Wall Street Journal that allowing for more flexibility and nuance in your living will may be the answer.
Maybe your current living will only addresses a few black and white situations but doesn’t address complex, real-life decisions that may have to be made by doctors and family members. Make sure you clarify your religious observances in your living will. Make sure that your living will is consistent with your personal wishes. Another way to improve your living wills is to appoint a trusted family member or friend to act as your agent with a health care power of attorney. Get someone to speak for you. Health care powers of attorney have become increasingly more important because of potential conflicts between relatives. Health care agents can make decisions on your behalf if you living will does clearly state what you would have wanted.
To further resolve this issue, talk to your family, doctors, and lawyers, to ensure that your advance directives reflect your wishes. Family members can provide insight and these conversations help them better understand your wishes. Doctors can address specific questions you may have about your health. And lawyers can ensure the documents are clear and properly written. These conversations can help people and families to use advance directives more wisely.
Rely on both a living will and a health care power of attorney if you are concerned your needs may not be met during medical care. Agreements between your doctors and families will be much easier when properly written advance directives are in place.
(2) Will My Advance Directives Be Susceptible to Outside Influences Now or in the Future?
People change. Society changes. Health care treatments change. These normal life changes raise concerns with individuals over whether their interests will be maintained in serious situations. As long as you are competent, only you can consent to or refuse medical treatment. However, there may be instances where decisions must be made when you are not in a position to make them.
Of some comfort is that health care providers must abide by a code of ethics – they have to make the best possible decision in every case. Also of some relief is that advance directives are legally enforceable –as long as your advance directives are clear and properly written, the instructions in them must be followed.
New information may come along, new medical treatments may be introduced, and your specific inclinations may change. To put your mind at ease, make sure you review your advance directives every couple of years or less. Both living wills and health care powers of attorney should be executed to ensure your end-of-life needs and desires will be met. Be sure to identify your needs and lay them out clearly for those in a position to help you.
Adil Daudi is an Attorney at JKY Legal Group, P.C., focusing primarily on Asset Protection for Physicians, Physician Contracts, Estate Planning, Shariah Estate Planning, Health Care Law, Business Litigation, and Corporate Formations. He can be contacted for any questions related to this article or other areas of law at adil@josephlaw.net or (517) 381-2663.
By Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bridget M. McCormack
Michigan’s court system needs qualified foreign language interpreters to make sure all people in Michigan have consistent, meaningful access to the courts. Justice requires that all parties have the ability not only to tell their side of the story, but to understand the opposing side. Interpreters make that happen.
The Michigan Supreme Court’s new rule requiring all courts to provide interpreters brings an urgency to the search for qualified interpreters. While the need for interpreters varies by jurisdiction, the inherent promise in the Supreme Court’s new rule is that everyone, no matter where their case is heard, will understand – and be understood – during the proceedings.
A court interpreter must be much more than simply bilingual. Interpreters must understand the specialized language of judges and attorneys, as well as the street slang of witnesses and the technical jargon of criminologists, police officers and expert witnesses. The interpreter’s role is to render a complete and accurate translation without altering, omitting or adding anything to what is stated or written, and without explanation.
Interpreter candidates must pass a written English exam, scoring 80 percent or better to be eligible to take an oral proficiency exam. There is no cost to take the written English exam.
Candidates taking the oral proficiency exam must pay a fee, which reflects what it costs the State Court Administrative Office to rate the exams. There’s a $200 fee for the Spanish oral proficiency exam and a $350 fee for the oral exam for other languages, which at this time include Arabic, Cantonese, French, Haitian Creole, Hmong, Ilocano, Khmer, Korean, Laotian, Mandarin, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Somali, Tagalog and Vietnamese.
The written English exam will be offered March 25, 2014 and July 29, 2014.
The Spanish oral proficiency exam will be offered June 19 and 20, 2014 and Oct. 16 and 17, 2014.
The oral proficiency exam for languages other than Spanish will be Oct. 20 and 21, 2014.
Tests are given at the Michigan Hall of Justice, 925 W. Ottawa St., Lansing, Mich. 48915. Pre-registration is required and information is available by emailing languageaccess@courts.mi.gov or calling 517-373-6670.
Individuals who pass both the written and oral test receive a certification card and their names are added to the certified interpreters list, which the State Court Administrative Office provides to all judges and court administrators in Michigan. While certification is not required, courts are encouraged to give preference to certified interpreters when available.
Members of the Michigan Supreme Court and its Limited English Proficiency Implementation Advisory Committee are eager to help local courts put the new rule into action. Together we can help ensure that the courts are working smarter for a better Michigan.
McCormack is chair of the Supreme Court’s Limited English Proficiency Implementation Advisory Committee, which is charged with helping local courts meet the requirement to provide interpreters in all courts.
A man feeds pigeons in front of the Security Monument in central Ankara January 10, 2014. The words on the monument read: ‘’Turks: Be proud! Work! Trust!’’ REUTERS/Umit Bektas
LONDON (Reuters) – As the tidal wave of global central bank liquidity recedes in 2014, emerging market investors are growing more anxious about local political risks – and how to spot them early on.
Developing economies have had a rough ride since the Federal Reserve first mooted a wind-down of its money printing last year. The looming withdrawal of easy cash worldwide pushed the dollar and Treasury yields up and drove Western investors home, jarring countries most dependent on foreign capital. Emerging market bonds posted only their third year in the red since 1998 last year, while emerging equities ended 2013 in the red for the second year in three.
And as the global investment tide sweeps out, it may reveal a beach strewn with political detritus.
As competition for funds hots up while their economies rapidly lose steam, political risks have been amplified in the so-called ‘Fragile Five’ of Turkey, South Africa, India, Indonesia and Brazil, the emerging economies with the biggest overseas financing needs.
All five face elections this year, adding to brewing local concerns over a deepening corruption probe in Turkey or the waning popularity of South Africa’s and Brazil’s leaders.
South Africa and India hold parliamentary elections in 2014, while Brazil and Turkey have presidential elections. Indonesia has both. In fact, 12 of the major emerging markets go to the polls in some format this year.
“2014 will be a year in which the return impact from idiosyncratic political events in emerging markets could increase substantially,†asset manager M&G Investments told clients this week.
“The prospect of these elections could potentially reduce the net capital flows into these economies on a temporary basis,†it added, citing the threat of local capital flight, delayed foreign direct investment or portfolio flows as well as increased demand for currency and bond hedging.
Navigating the scheduled elections may be the easy bit, however. Some of the biggest political disruptions of the past four years were rather more sudden, such as the Arab Spring upheavals across the Middle East and North Africa or the more recent street protests in Ukraine.
For funds seeking to assess political risk well in advance, some form of advance warning system or scorecard is critical.
‘WILLINGNESS TO PAY’
The world’s biggest asset manager Blackrock, for example, publishes a Sovereign Risk Index every quarter that now ranks 50 countries in terms of governments’ overall creditworthiness.
The index covers areas such as external finance needs, fiscal policies and banking stability, but also captures the essence of pure political risk under a heading ‘Willingness to Pay’.
The introduction of Ukraine and Nigeria to the list this week saw the two countries come in at 45th and 39th respectively on overall ratings.
Their scores for ‘Willingness to Pay’, however, are far below the average of their emerging market peers. Only Venezuela has a worse rating than Nigeria, for example.
What’s more, Blackrock highlighted the growing political element in its risk ratings, citing the recent unrest in Thailand and Ukraine in particular, and it said it had added an additional source in compiling its ‘willingness to pay’ gauge to strengthen monitoring.
All of the ‘Fragile Five’ flashed red on this category when Blackrock last updated this index in October.
Portfolio investors, therefore, may have their radars up in order to exit quickly, but does this work for companies with bricks and mortar investment on the ground?
Political risks to so-called foreign direct investments go well beyond tax hikes or payment risks and extend to outright expropriation of assets, threats to staff or plant and inventory damage from conflict or social unrest.
Traditionally these risks to foreign direct investment have had to be judged by deep local knowledge, or assessed by government insurance bodies or bespoke political risk agencies.
But a study published by the U.S.-based National Bureau of Economic Research this week showed that early-warning political risk gauges can be constructed from bond market prices and provide just as valuable a guide for business overseas.
The paper, by four U.S. economists from Columbia and Duke Universities and Universities of Washington and North Carolina, showed political risk gauges do provide a good warning of events defined both by claims recorded by the U.S. government’s political risk insurance arm and major adverse news events.
What’s more, the authors – Geert Bekaert, Campbell Harvey, Christian Lundblad and Stephen Siegel – reckon they can construct a real-time accurate gauge using a subset of sovereign bond spreads stripping out non-political factors like market liquidity, economic trends or the global market climate.
By and large, they argue, sovereign spreads in emerging markets overstate pure political risks by 3.1 percentage points.
But – in a warning as much to national policymakers as investors – their striking conclusion is that a 1 percentage point rise in the political risk spread leads to a drop in FDI of almost 12 percent, or some $305 million on average, for the 30 emerging countries in major debt indices.
Defected Syrian Prime Minister Riyad Hijab speaks during a news conference in Amman in this August 14, 2012 file photo. Hijab is running for the leadership of the Western-backed political opposition in a bid to make the fractious rebel movement more credible ahead of political peace talks. The Syrian National Coalition is seeking to strengthen its position ahead of talks dubbed ‘Geneva 2’ and scheduled for Jan. 22, as its rebel forces contend with attacks from groups linked to al Qaeda as well as a newly formed and increasingly aggressive Islamic Front.
REUTERS/Majed Jaber/Files
With the Geneva II negotiations set to take place in less than a week, there are several obstacles to the negotiations making any sort of breakthrough.
The first and most crucial obstacle is the possibility that either side might choose not to attend altogether. The Syrian political opposition, known as the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), has continuously vacillated on whether or not it will attend the summit.
The coalition initially said that it would attend if several conditions were met, including the precondition that Assad not play a “role in the transitional period and the future of Syriaâ€, as well as the demand that aid agencies be given access to all besieged areas.
While these preconditions are acceptable to much of the international community, the regime itself would never accept them. So with the date of Geneva II rapidly approaching, and with those conditions yet to be met, the Coalition must decide whether it will attend the summit anyway.
The opposition is facing enormous pressure to attend. It risks being seen by most observers as the side impeding a resolution to the Syrian conflict. The SNC also faces many more tangible pressures. The US and the UK recently announced that their aid could be in jeopardy should the organization choose not to attend.
While the SNC has many other supporters across the international community, alienating the US and the UK would mean alienating two of the five permanent UN Security Council members, as well as losing the diplomatic and political clout that the US has thus far provided for the SNC.
This is the dilemma faced by the Syrian Opposition, and places doubts on whether they will be present at Geneva.
On the other hand, while the Assad regime has accepted, in principle, the Geneva summit, large doubts remain. While it says it will attend, the regime has also said that it will not negotiate with “terrorists,†a name that it has continuously applied to nearly the entire opposition.
The regime also says that a solution will not involve Assad’s departure, a key demand of the opposition. Thus conditions from both parties place doubts on whether either side will attend at all.
Assuming that the two sides do end up going, it is unlikely that an agreement will be reached. A fundamental problem is the lack of credibility on the part of the opposition. The SNC is made up primarily of politicians in exile who have very little credibility on the ground.
Even if an agreement were reached, it is unlikely that many of the rebel organizations fighting on the ground would accept it. The leader of The Nusra Front, Abu Mohammed Al-Julani, confirmed these suspicions when he said that they would “not recognize any results that come out of the Geneva II conference.â€
Most rebel organizations do not even recognize the representation of the SNC, and so the organization has very little leverage in negotiations with the Assad regime.
In fact, its lack of acceptance is the main reason why the SNC has been resisting calls to enter negotiations. It would be a crippling blow to its already weak credibility if it were to reach an agreement with the regime, but were then unable to impose it on its rebel allies.
Another obstacle to the negotiations is the demand, by the regime, that any resolution be put to a referendum. While this demand may seem fair, it would be all but impossible for any semblance of a referendum to be held with Syria in its current state, not to mention that the vote would have to be monitored and deemed fair by both sides.
Ultimately, both sides are so divided on what a potential resolution would look like that a solution is extremely unlikely to emerge from Geneva II, even if both sides show up. Both sides remain convinced that they are only months away from victory.
The reality is that in a civil war, rarely does one side ‘win’. Far more common is the probability that both sides will continue to fight until they are convinced that they cannot win. Only at that point will they finally sit at a negotiating table with the true intention of making peace. The sooner both sides reach that conclusion, the sooner the country can begin the long process of rebuilding.
LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) – A two-year rally in frontier African stocks, which has withstood the Nairobi shopping mall attack, violence in the Central African Republic and fighting in South Sudan, is showing signs of fatigue, pointing to muted gains this year.
The MSCI Africa index, which excludes South Africa but includes three North African markets, has risen more than 60 percent over the past two years as investors sought plays on the rising purchasing power of middle class consumers in the world’s fastest-growing continent.
But inflows into sub-Saharan African equity funds have slowed from more than $3 billion in 2012 to $1 billion last year, according to Boston-based fund tracker EPFR.
With stock valuations in frontier markets now higher than their emerging market peers, investors will need to look beyond blue-chip companies in major markets like Kenya to smaller companies or less familiar markets like Botswana to find value this year. (GRAPHIC: see http://link.reuters.com/maz75v).
“I do not think we are going to see a correction, but I do not think we are going to see the same kind of rally,†said Ronak Gadhia, equity analyst at frontier markets broker Exotix, who focuses on sub-Saharan African financial stocks.
The MSCI Africa index rose 18 percent last year after a 38 percent leap in 2012.
Some of the best performers have been in Nigeria, with GT Bank surging 90 percent over the past two years while Nestle Nigeria has nearly tripled.
Nigeria is still probably the most attractive major frontier market in the region but its outlook is clouded by political risk this year, analysts say.
Economist Jim O’Neill, who coined the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), has included Nigeria in a category of most promising economies: the MINTs – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.
Nigeria’s weighting in the MSCI frontiers index should increase to 20 percent from 14 percent following an upgrade of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in May, ensuring it attracts more attention from both dedicated emerging market and larger global investors.
Investors point to the fact that there are fewer than 30 million bank accounts for Nigeria’s 160 million population, and that Africans are starting to consume more, rather than just acting as exporters of raw materials.
But they also stress the drawbacks of inadequate infrastructure in Nigeria, particularly in the power sector, along with concerns about the impact on the economy of presidential elections next year, and a change in central bank governor this year.
Nigeria is sub-Saharan Africa’s largest market after South Africa, which is an emerging, not a frontier, market.
But with daily turnover on the Lagos stock market less than $30 million, its appeal to large international investors is limited. That is even more true of Kenya, Mauritius or other African markets.
“Some of these markets did very well last year. They may go more slowly or take a break,†said Sven Richter, head of frontier markets at Renaissance Asset Managers.
“I am not predicting they will go down – they should rise at a slower rate.â€
SLENDER YIELDS
Investors have not been deterred by violence in African markets, notably the attack on a Nairobi shopping mall in September which killed 67 and in Nigeria where thousands have died since the Islamist group Boko Haram launched an uprising against the state in 2009.
The continent has also been less-sensitive than other high-yielding markets to the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing its stimulus programme from this month, although that will still be a risk.
“It’s more about the growth story locally,†said Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered.
“The Africa growth story is consistent, the impact will still be positive.â€
The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate to 6 percent this year, from an estimated 5 percent in 2013.
But some of last year’s outperforming stocks may find the going tougher.
Kenyan power generation company Kengen soared more than 50 percent in 2013, but further gains may be hobbled by huge capital raising to finance new generation plans.
Nigerian banking profitability could be at risk from more punitive reserve requirements.
Local funds, however, have helped boost share prices in recent months as they switched from fixed income markets which have lost some of their yield appeal.
Nigeria’s pension assets have more than doubled in the last eight years, to $24 billion.
“The allocation to equities is increasing, moving from 10-11 percent to 13-14 percent, and we see that increasing even further,†said David Mcilroy, chief investment officer of Africa fund Alquity.
And for those funds small and nimble enough to move into the tinier African markets, there could be other options.
Analyst picks include Botswana microfinance company Letshego , Mauritius’ second bank Mauritius Commercial Bank and Rwanda’s Bank of Kigali.
Richter said investors would gradually become more adventurous in stock-picking, moving away from international names and towards buoyant local businesses.
“They first get their toes into the market, then look at other opportunities.â€
(Additional reporting by Duncan Miriri in Nairobi; Editing by Susan Fenton)
Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of parliament from his ruling AK Party (AKP) during a meeting at the parliament in Ankara January 14, 2014. Erdogan looks to have the upper hand in a civil war rocking Turkey’s political establishment, but his bid to break the influence of a potent Islamic cleric could roll back reforms and undermine hard-won business confidence. What erupted a month ago as a damaging inquiry into alleged government corruption has spiralled into a battle over the judiciary with potentially much further-reaching consequences for the country’s international image and Erdogan’s own future.
REUTERS/Umit Bektas
ISTANBUL, Jan 13 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan looks to have the upper hand in a civil war rocking Turkey’s political establishment, but his bid to break the influence of a potent Islamic cleric could roll back reforms and undermine hard-won business confidence.
What erupted a month ago as a damaging inquiry into alleged government corruption has spiralled into a battle over the judiciary with potentially much further-reaching consequences for the country’s international image and Erdogan’s own future.
“There is considerable risk of Turkey losing the gains in credibility and investment it has won in the past decade,†a senior Turkish banker said, declining to be named for fear of repercussions for publicly criticising the government.
Despite fist fights in parliament, the opposition looks unable to prevent Erdogan’s plan to put the appointment of judges, held to be under the sway of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, more under government control.
In power since 2003, Erdogan has led what Ankara, the United States and Europe long held up as a potential model for Islamic democracy and stability for Arab states.
But a crackdown in June on anti-government protests and his response to the graft inquiry, his critics say, has betrayed increasingly authoritarian tendencies.
“Everyone knows that this plan to keep the judiciary under political control is not constitutional and is not democratic,†said Koray Caliskan, an associate political science professor at Istanbul’s Bogazici University.
The premier says the graft inquiry is an attempted “judicial coup†by a “parallel stateâ€, a thinly veiled reference to Gulen’s influence in the judiciary and police, and has purged hundreds of police officers deemed loyal to the cleric, whose followers see him as more progressive and pro-Western.
But while new police officers and judges may slow the graft inquiries, the shakeup could fuel opposition to Erdogan and lead Gulen – a former ally who helped Erdogan’s AK Party rise to power – to tacitly side with his opponents in an Istanbul election in March, a key test of the government’s popularity.
Details of the corruption allegations have not been made public, but are believed to relate to construction and real estate projects and Turkey’s gold trade with Iran, according to Turkish newspaper reports, citing prosecutors’ documents.
The government has cast them as a smear campaign but damage has already been done.
“If a perception takes hold that you can’t do business in Turkey without bribing, foreign investors may avoid privatisation tenders,†said Huseyin Gurer, managing partner in Turkey for Deloitte.
“Investors may also start worrying about the legal system and may start questioning whether their rights will be preserved before the law,†he told Reuters. “The government should take immediate steps to correct that perception.â€
PYRRHIC VICTORY?
Erdogan has overseen strong economic growth in Turkey since coming to power in 2002, transforming its reputation after a series of unstable coalition governments in the 1990s ran into repeated balance of payments problems and economic crises.
But its external financing needs are considerable – Barclays estimates them at $217 billion this year, more than five times the central bank’s net forex reserves – and maintaining access to international capital markets at reasonable costs is vital.
“Countries where the executive is at odds with or dominates the judiciary find it hard to gain access to foreign financing,†the banker said.
“Turkey is shooting itself in the foot.â€
Erdogan shows no sign of backing down in a struggle his supporters view as an opportunity to break the influence of Gulen’s Hizmet (“Serviceâ€) movement, which they see as an unaccountable force guiding democracy from behind the scenes.
President Abdullah Gul, a co-founder with Erdogan of the AK Party who has largely stayed out of the furore in recent weeks, has to ratify the judiciary bill, but has rarely used his powers to veto legislation and is broadly seen as unlikely to do so this time.
Gul nonetheless met the leaders of Turkey’s three biggest opposition parties on Monday in an apparent effort to broker a last-minute reconciliation. Parliament’s justice commission, dominated by the AK Party, is still reviewing the draft bill and it was unclear when it would be put to a vote in the assembly.
Erdogan said on Sunday that the opposition could challenge the changes at the constitutional court, but his critics say that would take time and come too late.
As soon as the law is ratified, the justice ministry could immediately make its own appointments at the top of the judiciary, said Idris Bal, a former AK Party deputy who quit the ruling party last year.
The corruption investigation is still ongoing but tighter control over the judiciary could help the government avoid more damaging allegations in a scandal that has already brought the resignation of three ministers before local elections in March.
But it is also likely to consolidate opposition to Erdogan’s perceived authoritarianism, with talk of Gulen’s movement, known as the “cemaatâ€, tacitly backing the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the key Istanbul mayoral race.
“The new generation in both the cemaat and the CHP are global-looking, pro-European Union, pro-democratisation, they know that they can work together,†Caliskan said.
“I don’t know if this will translate into votes, but I’m sure the cemaat will never vote for the AK Party in the next local elections.â€
The proposed bill would roll back some of the steps taken in a 2010 referendum on constitutional reform, a package meant to bolster the independence of the judiciary and championed by the European Union, of which Turkey aspires to be a member.
EU enlargement commissioner Stefan Fule said on Twitter late on Sunday that he had asked Turkey’s authorities to ensure the changes were “in line with the principles of EU legislationâ€.
A senior executive who advises foreign firms investing in Turkey said over the last decade it had considerably improved as a place to do business and had cut down bureaucracy.
“But it hasn’t achieved the same success in terms of transparency,†he said. “Foreign investors who were previously mulling coming to Turkey are now in a wait-and-see mood.â€
(Additional reporting by Daren Butler in Istanbul; writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
File: Dzhokhar (Jahar) Tsarnaev appearing before US Magistrate Marianne Bowler in the Moakley Federal Courthouse in Boston for his arraignment.
“I don’t argue with fools who say islam is terrorism it’s not worth a thing, let an idiot remain an idiot†– January 16, 2013 tweet by Jahar @J_tsar
While mainstream media maligns the Tsarnaev brothers as the Chechen terrorists who bombed the Boston marathon long before any convincing evidence has been presented in a court of law, a strong social undercurrent questioning the official version of events has spontaneously, pretty much miraculously emerged without any organization, and without any funding. The Free Jahar movement also supports Jahar’s imprisoned best friends Dias Kadyrbayev and Azamat Tazhayakov, foreign students from Khazakstan, and the family of Tamerlan’s friend Ibrahim Todashev who was murdered in Orlando by the Boston FBI. Thousands of young people, mostly women in their early 20s, impeccably groomed for their online profile photos and savvy with all the modern technology – most of whom have never met each other before – are now enthusiastically and internationally networking. Nothing like this has ever happened before in history.
Baffled and disturbed by the revelation that they can no longer keep up with the latest technology young people are using today, and are thus no longer able to control public opinion, the outdated pro-FBI mainstream media has obnoxiously mocked and dismissed “Jahar’s Army†as a bunch of silly “fangirls†crazed by the boy’s good looks.
However, a closer look reveals that this depiction is inaccurate. The Free Jahar movement is one of the most unique social justice movements that the world has ever seen – nearly all female and fiercely maternal in its passion to protect the innocent:
“Jahar, We will be your voice while your own is taken. Trust in us. We are here. We love you. We will make it right. Justice will be yours.â€
Luna, a Native American single mother of four living in Oklahoma who administrates the group Ohana along with Jahar’s sisters, Ibrahim’s widow and her mother, told TMO she had used google translate to locate them, as well as friends and relatives of Azamat and Dias via the Russian social media network VK and invited them to join Facebook. She said she is now “more aware of how the government and courts work†because of this “girl community.â€
Alice in New Zealand told TMO, “Like most people, prior to the bombings I sort of took everything on ‘face value’ and believed everything that was shown to me. In a strange way Jahar and his family showed me the truth, if you will, and made me see otherwise… I’m forever grateful for my eyes being opened to it as a result of everything I’ve learned from this case, it’s given my heart so much love and compassion towards Muslims because they deal with so much more than the average person. It’s been the turning point in my life and changed how I see the world and has made me into a better person.â€
Every generation has to realize the fact that governments lie. But unlike my generation, instead of despair, this generation of wonderful young people came up with this idea that if we love Jahar, we are no longer alone in this world. Upon believing in Jahar’s innocence, an intensely affectionate global family is formed, whose electronic (((hugs))) are like a tidal wave of divine love washing over this world. Jahar in his true suffering has undeniably and deeply blessed countless lives. He is almost like a Christ figure.
“He was chosen by the higher powers to be – Our makers, We call God, to Wake up the Sheep and turn them into Lions – hear them ROAR !!!†posts Unique Firefly of Florida.
“He has the character of the best person who could exist. Anyone who sees him falls in love with him. Dzhokhar, he is a gift from Allah, not just because he is my son – he is like an angel, this child. The Americans know him better than I do. They taught him. He was in the newspapers everywhere: he was excellent, good, kind. He worked all the time. In his extra moments, he worked so that things would not be difficult for us, his parents. He didn’t keep a penny for himself. This kind of child. You understand,†stated his father Anzor Tsarnaev via let-goletgod.
Most political prisoner support movements in the west have tended to be organized by aging secular leftists who attend meetings, pen statements, organize conferences and demonstrate on the street. The culture of this new movement is very, very different from traditional protest movements. This global women-led cultural movement is charged by prayers for peace and healing, respect for Christian and Muslim values, emotional support for each other, and unconditional, passionate respect for Jahar’s family and friends.
North American Jahar supporters have often found that the world has suddenly opened up for them, as they familiarize themselves with Muslim customs and world geography and learn about history and geopolitics from their new friends around the world.
“Yeah I had no idea Asians lived in Khazakstan!†laughs Jill of Massachusetts.
“You know what I truly admire, whenever it’s their time to pray no matter wherever they are they will stop and pray. Love it,†comments Sharon in Vancouver.
Jahar’s supporters do their share of letter writing and strive to attend status hearings, but their fight to influence public opinion takes place mostly in online forums. Unlike most prisoner support movements that hinge on court dates and then fizzle out, the Jahar groups are active around the clock. Communication takes place on Facebook, Twitter, and other apps that only young people have heard of. The largest Facebook group, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev is Innocent, has over 17,000 members and continues to grow. While the group’s political influence on matters of US justice is unclear, Jahar himself has received so many gifts to his prison commissary that he has begged supporters to stop sending money or he might lose his state-funded attorneys!
They don’t just circulate news articles, court documents, and action alerts. Participants post a steady stream of family photos, personal anecdotes, pictures of lions (Jahar’s Twitter symbol), and even poor Ibrahim’s cat, Todashev Pisu Ibragimovich, curled up asleep in the bathroom sink, who misses his daddy very much. The group follows status updates from the Tsarnaev sisters with the same level of excitement other women might reserve for the Kardashians. They look up to Jahar’s mother Zubeida as a source of beauty, strength, courage and advice.
“Zubi told me how her kids are nice and she said I’m nice like her kids. And I’ve read that in Islam you have to be nice to everyone,†Maria from Kosova told TMO. The movement has indeed evolved into something indescribable that’s all about emotionally supporting complete strangers.
Whenever someone loses a family member, falls ill, gets pregnant or goes through a break-up, she receives prayers and best wishes from all around the world. They send each other birthday cards, thank you cards, I love you cards, and even Christmas presents for each others’ children. If a young lady posts a “selfie,†she is told how beautiful she is, inside and out. They visit their new friends while traveling, and confide in each other on personal matters. During the boys’ court hearings, women around the world hover around Twitter for updates, trying to decipher the legal jargon.
Kimberly in Ohio told TMO that “the ‘event’ has had a great impact in many ways on my previously held beliefs… the Boston Bombing has drastically changed my heart and opened my mind about so many things, that I don’t know where to begin, to end…â€
An activist health worker administers a polio vaccination to a child in Aleppo January 5, 2014.
REUTERS/Hosam Katan
GENEVA (Reuters) – Heavy fighting has prevented health workers from getting polio vaccine to an estimated 100,000 Syrian children in the northeastern province of Raqqa, United Nations aid agencies said on Monday, appealing for access.
The crippling infectious disease was confirmed in 17 children in Syria in October, the first outbreak there since 1999. A nationwide campaign was launched in November to vaccinate some 2 million Syrian children under five each month until May.
The World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF) condemned the halt of the immunization campaign in Raqqa province due to intense fighting in Syria’s civil war.
Polio poses a “serious risk†in Syria and the region and all children have the right to be protected from the disease, which can paralyze a child within hours, they said in a statement.
“We haven’t reached Raqqa town in this second round of immunization. There are approximately 100,000 children out of reach in the town and its outskirts,†Elizabeth Hoff, WHO representative in Syria, told Reuters from Damascus.
Raqqa is the only provincial capital under rebel control and WHO has no direct contact with Islamist groups there, she said. The al Qaeda-linked Islamist State of Iraq and the Levant executed dozens of rival Islamists over the last two days as the group recaptured most territory it had lost in Raqqa, activists said on Sunday.
Some 2.15 million children across Syria were reached last week with polio vaccine during this second round of mass immunization, including some in Raqqa province, Hoff said.
“The information campaign has been very strong, parents are bringing their children. The uptake is very good,†Hoff said.
“At least we haven’t seen any new cases since October,†she added. That month saw 15 cases in Deir al-Zor, in the east, and single cases in Aleppo, in the north, and Douma (Rural Damascus).
Syria’s government and some rebels may be willing to permit humanitarian aid to flow, enforce local ceasefires and take other confidence-building measures in the nearly three-year-old conflict, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday.
Kerry held talks in Paris with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.N. mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, who has convened peace talks in Switzerland next week in an attempt to end the conflict that has killed more than 100,000 people and forced millions to flee.
Peter Maurer, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), appealed for greater access for aid workers at the end of a three-day visit to Syria.
“Health supplies, food and other basic necessities are running dangerously short, especially in besieged areas, where the situation is critical,†Maurer said in a statement.
The U.S. is supposed to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan by the end of this new year. But despite public opinion polls to the contrary, President Obama is seeking to leave several thousand Special Forces troops, military trainers, CIA personnel, “contractors†and surveillance listening posts for 10 more years in Afghanistan until the end of 2024.
The CNN/ORC International survey released Dec. 30 shows that 75% of the American people oppose keeping any US military troops in Afghanistan after the scheduled pullout Dec. 31. Indeed, “a majority of Americans would like to see US troops pull out of Afghanistan before the December 2014 deadline.â€
The poll’s most important statistic is that “Just 17% of those questioned say they support the 12-year-long war, down from 52% in December 2008. Opposition to the conflict now stands at 82%, up from 46% five years ago. CNN Polling Director Keating Holland suggested the 17% support was the lowest for any US ongoing war.
A majority of Americans turned against the war against Afghanistan a few years go, but according to a Associated Press-GFK poll released Dec. 18 – these days 57% say that even attacking and invading Afghanistan in 2001 was probably the “wrong thing to do.â€
Clearly, the American people are truly fed up, but do not have a viable electoral alternative to a continuing military presence in Afghanistan. The era of the mass antiwar movement, which was supported by the great majority of Democrats, collapsed when Democrat Obama was elected. Democrats may acknowledge their views to pollsters but they rarely attend protests against Obama’s Afghan adventure or drone attacks in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and elsewhere.
President Obama is sticking to his original schedule of withdrawing “all ground troops†by the end of 2014, but the Special Forces, et al., are not technically “ground troops.†His intention to deploy a smaller but vital military presence is related to larger policy goals connected to the “pivot†to Asia.
The White House has been bargaining with the Kabul government for years to keep military forces in Afghanistan for another 10 years. In return the US would pay multi-billions for the training and upkeep of the Afghan army and police and help finance the government at great expense until 2024.
It recently seemed an agreement was reached, but President Hamid Karzai says it cannot be signed until after a new president takes office after elections in April – a delay that upset the Oval Office.
According to Mara Tchalakov of the Institute for the Study of War: “With deep divisions in Afghanistan over the right of legal immunity for American soldiers and contractors, as well as the right to conduct night raids in private Afghan homes, Karzai is trying to buy time to build political support…. Waiting until after the election would buy time and leave open the possibility of renegotiating issues that could prove problematic as the election nears.â€
At this stage it is not known who will win in April. Two-term Karzai cannot run for reelection, a blessing as far as the Obama Administration is concerned. He may be a puppet but he knows how to kick back on his own, especially about civilian deaths, night house invasions by US troops, and Washington’s efforts to completely dominate the Kabul government.
The White House has a year to obtain a signed agreement and seems confident it will do so either before or soon after Karzai steps down, particularly if the anti-Taliban, pro-U.S. Northern Alliance and friendly political parties such as the Tajik-dominated Jamiat-e Islami, gain more influence.
Obama sought a similar arrangement in Iraq when US troops were set to withdraw in December 2011, but a deal was rejected in the last months by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, much to the administration’s chagrin.
In a sense Obama was lucky. If the several thousand American troops he sought had remained in Iraq they would have become embroiled in the al-Qaeda and jihadist Sunni uprising against the majority Shi’ite regime led by Maliki. In 2013 alone, over 7,300 civilians and 1,000 Iraqi security forces – overwhelmingly Shia – were slaughtered. Most of the deaths were from executions and bomb attacks.
The White House may be extremely worried about closer ties between Shi’ite Iraq and Iran – an unintended consequence of the US invasion and overthrow of the secular regime of Saddam Hussein – but it is now even more worried about Sunni jihadist gains in Iraq, particularly since jihadist elements began to dominate the rebel fighting in neighboring Syria. The al-Qaeda affiliate ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria) is making significant gains in both countries.
According to The New York Times Dec. 26, Washington “is quietly rushing dozens of Hellfire missiles and low-tech surveillance drones to Iraq to help government forces combat an explosion of violence by a Qaeda-backed insurgency that is gaining territory in both western Iraq and neighboring Syria.â€
On Jan. 3 the same newspaper reported: “Radical Sunni militants aligned with Al Qaeda threatened on Thursday to seize control of Fallujah and Ramadi, two of the most important cities in Iraq, setting fire to police stations, freeing prisoners from jail and occupying mosques, as the government rushed troop reinforcements to the areas.â€
Afghanistan is especially important to Washington for two main reasons.
The obvious first reason is to have smaller but elite forces and surveillance facilities in Afghanistan to continue the fighting when necessary to protect US interests, which include maintaining a powerful influence within the country. Those interests will become jeopardized if, as some suspect, armed conflict eventually breaks out among various forces contending for power in Kabul since the mid-1990s, including, of course, the Taliban, which held power 1996-2001 until the US invasion.
The more understated second reason is that Afghanistan is an extremely important geopolitical asset for the US, particularly because it is the Pentagon’s only military base in Central Asia, touching Iran to the west, Pakistan to the east, China to the northeast and various resource-rich former Soviet republics to the northwest, as well as Russia to the north.
A Dec. 30 report in Foreign Policy by Louise Arbour noted: “Most countries in [Central Asia] are governed by aging leaders and have no succession mechanisms – in itself potentially a recipe for chaos. All have young, alienated populations and decaying infrastructure… in a corner of the world too long cast as a pawn in someone else’s game.â€
At this point a continued presence in Afghanistan dovetails with Washington’s so-called New Silk Road policy first announced by then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton two years ago. The objective over time is to sharply increase US economic, trade and political power in strategic Central and South Asia to strengthen US global hegemony and to impede China’s development into a regional hegemon.
As the State Department’s Robert O. Blake Jr. put it March 23: “The dynamic region stretching from Turkey, across the Caspian Sea to Central Asia, to Afghanistan and the massive South Asian economies, is a region where greater cooperation and integration can lead to more prosperity, opportunity, and stability.
“But for all of this progress and promise, we’re also clear-eyed about the challenges. Despite real gains in Afghan stability, we understand the region is anxious about security challenges. That’s why we continue to expand our cooperation with Afghanistan and other countries of the region to strengthen border security and combat transnational threats.â€
Blake did not define what “security challenges†he had in mind. But both China and Russia are nearby seeking greater trade and influence in Central Asia – their adjacent backyard, so to speak – and the White House, at least, may consider this a security challenge of its own.
The Palestine Children’s Relief Fund (PCRF), the world’s largest children’s charity filling the medical needs of children in the Middle East, will hold its Climb of Hope event this week. A group of dedicated humanitarians will climb Mount Kilimanjaro in the Himalayas. The motto of the climbers is: “Let us replace what they have lost with hopeâ€. Mount Kilimanjaro is the highest mountain in Africa.
What makes this event unique is that for the first time in history the group making the ascent will consist of three seriously injured Arab teenagers.They will do this to raise support for and awareness of the needs of children in Palestine and Syria. The PCRF hopes through this to raise one million dollars to allow them to continue their wide spread humanitarian endeavors. There are three sponsorships available: Platinum, Gold, and Climber.
These three brave and dedicated young people have all lost limbs during childhood. They have been brought back to functioning health through the intervention of the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund. In each case the PCRF arranged for treatment abroad in an appropriate medical setting. This was done at no cost to the victim and to his or her family.
These young people will be part of a team led by veteran climber, Suzanne Al Houby. Ms Al Houby is the first Arab and Palestinian woman to reach the summit of Mount Everest and to reach to the top of Mount Kilimanjaro six times. All three have undergone extensive preparation for their climb.
A brief history of the young climbers.
Mutasem Abu Karsh is a 16 year old 10th grader living in northern Gaza. In 2006 he was injured by an Israeli tank shell and subsequently lost his left leg and several fingers of his left hand. In 2007 he was treated through the PCRF at Shriners Hospital in Los Angeles under the guidance of the Southern California chapter. He then was sent to Dubai for a new leg.
Mohammed Jammous is a 15 year old Syrian refugee living in Irbid, Jordan.He was hit by a tank shell in 2012 and received injuries. His treatment, arranged through the PCRF, necessitated the amputation of his left leg above the knee. He was treated in Houston at the Texas Orthopedic Hospital at no charge to him or to his family.
Yasmeen Al Najjar is 17 years old and lives in the West Bank near the city of Nablus.When she was four years of age, she was hit by a car and lost her right leg above the knee.When she was 9 years of age, the PCRF arranged for her treatment, again free of charge, at the Shriner’s Hospital in Houston. In 2011 with continued help from the PCRF, she was sent to the Ibn Sina Center in Jordan. In 2012 the PCRF arranged for her to go to Jerusalem for a new leg that they fully paid for.
The PCRF was founded in 1991 to provide humanitarian medical relief to sick and injured children in the Middle East. When on site care is not optimum for the child, he or she is sent abroad to receive the needed treatment. This is done at no charge to the child or to the adult that often accompanies him.
Their work includes (but is not limited to) mechanized wheelchairs, fitted to individual needs; a Pediatric Cancer Department in Beit Jala; a Pediatric Cardiac unit; eye glasses for needy children; a summer camp for special needs children, and a Woman’s Empowerment Project.
The PCRF has offices in many locations in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon, and a Global Chapter footprint with volunteers who will see to necessary medical treatment for every child in need.
To find out more about the Climb of Hope or about other work of the PCRFand/or to make a much needed contribution, please access their site at: www.pcrf.net.
ABU DHABI (Reuters) – Abu Dhabi’s Advanced Technology Investment Co (ATIC) plans to invest up to $10 billion over the next two years in GlobalFoundries’ upstate New York semiconductor factory, its chief executive said on Friday.
ATIC owns unlisted GlobalFoundries, having completed a buyout of joint venture partner Advanced Micro Devices Inc in March 2012. ATIC is controlled by Abu Dhabi state investment fund Mubadala.
“We have received commitments from Mubadala for an additional $9-10 billion for expansion of our facility in New York,†ATIC Chief Executive Ibrahim Ajami told Reuters.
ATIC, which expects to be profitable by 2015, also plans to invest in GlobalFoundries’ chip manufacturing facilities in Germany and Singapore, Ajami said, without elaborating.
The Saratoga County, New York factory, which started operations in 2012, has the capacity to produce 300 mm wafers at about 60,000 a month. The wafers are used to make integrated circuits, which are at the heart of all electronic devices.
ATIC wants to expand the factory to produce advanced chips with features measuring 20 and 14 nanometers, or a billionth of a meter, which will be growth areas in the next three to four years, Ajami said.
Contract chip manufacturers regularly upgrade their factories to produce smaller chips, a vital part of making electronic devices smaller, such as thinner mobile phones.
GlobalFoundries competes against leading contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, or TMSC, which is also investing heavily in technology to maker smaller integrated circuits.
TSMC plans to invest $17 billion in new facilities in southern Taiwan, where it will make 20 nm chips.
Growth rates are in the high single-digits for the semiconductor industry, which has been hit by falling demand for personal computers as people switch to mobile devices such as tablets, Ajami said.
But chip manufacturers will continue to grow at a double-digit pace as more firms outsource production to companies like GlobalFoundries, he said.
Reacting to the slowdown in its core PC chip business, Intel Corp recently said it plans to expand its small contract manufacturing business and offer customers access to its chip factories, which are the world’s most advanced.
“It is competitive but lots of segments are demanding more and more digital circuits such as automobiles, mobiles and electronics,†Ajami said.
Plans to build a wafer fabrication plant in Abu Dhabi to make items such as light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and computer processors, were put on hold in 2011 due to tough market conditions.
But the company continues to invest in the oil-rich emirate, especially in research, development and training, Ajami said.
Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, is investing billions of dollars in industry, tourism and infrastructure to diversify its economy away from oil.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie poses in his office at the Statehouse in Trenton in 2013.
AP/Mel Evans
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has been Wall Street’s anointed son for the presidency. He is backed by the most ruthless and corrupt figures in New Jersey politics, including the New Jersey multimillionaire and hard-line Democratic boss George Norcross III. Among his other supporters are many hedge fund managers and corporate executives and some of the nation’s most retrograde billionaires, including the Koch brothers. The brewing scandal over the closing of traffic lanes on the George Washington Bridge apparently in retaliation for the Fort Lee mayor’s refusal to support the governor’s 2013 re-election is a window into how federal agencies and the security and surveillance apparatus would be routinely employed in a Christie presidency to punish anyone who challenged this tiny cabal’s grip on power.
Christie is the caricature of a Third World despot. He has a vicious temper, a propensity to bully and belittle those weaker than himself, an insatiable thirst for revenge against real or perceived enemies, and little respect for the law and, as recent events have made clear, for the truth. He is gripped by a bottomless hedonism that includes a demand for private jets, huge entourages, exclusive hotels and lavish meals. Wall Street and the security and surveillance apparatus want a real son of a bitch in power, someone with the moral compass of Al Capone, in order to ruthlessly silence and crush those of us who are working to overthrow the corporate state. They have had enough of what they perceive to be Barack Obama’s softness. Christie fits the profile and he is drooling for the opportunity.
Activists, Democratic and Republican rivals for power, liberals, reformers and environmentalists will, if Christie becomes president, see the vast forces of the security state surge into overdrive to stymie and reverse reform, gut our tepid financial and environmental regulations, further enrich the corporate elite who are pillaging the country, and savagely shut down all dissent. The corporate state’s repression, now on the brink of totalitarianism, would with the help of Christie, his corporate backers and his tea party loyalists become a full-blown corporate fascism.
Wall Street was unable to mask Mitt Romney’s cloying sense of entitlement and elitism, along with his Mr. Rogers blandness. But Wall Street sees in the profane, union-busting New Jersey governor the perfect Trojan horse for unfettered corporate power. Christie, eyeing a bid for the presidency in the 2016 election, has been promised massive financial backing by the Koch brothers; hedge fund titans such as Stanley Druckenmiller, Kenneth C. Griffin, Daniel S. Loeb, Paul E. Singer, Paul Tudor Jones II and David Tepper; financiers such as Charles Schwab and Stephen A. Schwarzman; real estate magnate Mort Zuckerman; former New York Stock Exchange Chairman Richard Grasso; former AIG head Maurice “Hank†Greenberg; former Morgan Stanley CEO John J. Mack; former GE Chairman Jack Welch; and Home Depot founder Kenneth Langone. David Koch has called Christie “a true political hero†and said he is “inspired by this man.†Rupert Murdoch, whose ethics seem to align with Christie’s, is similarly besotted with the governor.
Christie is pitched to the public, as was George W. Bush, as a regular guy, someone who speaks bluntly and candidly, someone you would want to have a beer with. But this is public relations crap. He is and has long been a hatchet man for corporate firms and big banks. He began his career as a corporate lobbyist in Trenton, N.J., working for clients such as the Securities Industry Association. He has done their bidding ever since. His wife, Mary Pat Christie, is a bond trader who has worked at JPMorgan Chase, Fleet Securities and Cantor Fitzgerald and is currently a managing director at Angelo Gordon, an investment firm in New York.
If Christie implodes politically, Wall Street will no doubt find another candidate to be its lackey. The system of corporate power, not the individual at the helm, is fundamentally the problem for democracy. But this does not mean we should not fear the excesses that surely would occur under a Christie presidency. Christie and those who want him to occupy the Oval Office have little regard for the impediments of law and do not know the meaning of the word “restraint.â€
The quality of most of the reporting on Christie has been pathetic. The numerous portraits of the “regular-guy†governor are rewritten versions of the fatuous press releases provided by the governor’s public relations team. New Jersey desperately needs a version of the late columnist Mike Royko, whose unauthorized biography of Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley, “Boss,†laid bare the Mafia-like inner workings of the Daley political juggernaut. The Christie forces, which have made an unholy alliance with the state’s corrupt Democratic Party bosses to create an unassailable gang of corporate rulers, are as brutal and colorful as anything Royko chronicled in Chicago. The Democratic machine, led by Norcross, allied itself with the Republican Christie to crush the Democratic candidate for governor, Barbara Buono, who lost last November’s election by roughly 22 percentage points.
Mark Halperin and John Heilemann in their book “Double Down: Game Change 2012†give us perhaps the best glimpse of Christie, who flirted with running for the Republican nomination during the last presidential race and was considered as a running mate for Romney. The authors devote a chapter to Christie called “Big Boy,†a nickname George W. Bush bestowed on the corpulent governor. When Romney met with Christie at the governor’s mansion in Princeton to obtain his endorsement, Christie not only demurred but warned Romney he better not approach any major donors in his state. “If you jump the gun and start raising money here, you can certainly kiss my support good-bye,†Christie told Romney, according to the book. The authors describe the conversation as “something out of ‘The Sopranos.’ â€
The Romney campaign, which reluctantly agreed to Christie’s incessant demands for private jets, ungainly entourages and expensive hotel rooms in return for campaign appearances by the governor in behalf of the GOP nominee, decided against selecting him as running mate because, as the authors write, Romney’s vetters were “stunned by the garish controversies lurking in the shadows of his record.â€
A 2010 U.S. Department of Justice inspector general’s investigation of Christie’s spending patterns in the federal job he held before he became governor, the book notes, called Christie “the U.S. attorney who most often exceeded the government [travel expense] rate without adequate justification†and someone who offered “insufficient, inaccurate, or no justification†for stays at exclusive hotels such as the Four Seasons. In addition, the inspector general’s report raised questions among Romney’s vetters about “Christie’s relationship with a top female deputy who accompanied him on many trips,†the book said.
Chris Hedges
“There was the fact that Christie worked as a lobbyist on behalf of the Securities Industry Association at a time when Bernie Madoffwas a senior SIA official—and sought an exemption from New Jersey’s Consumer Fraud Act,†Halperin and Heilemann wrote. “There [also] was Christie’s decision to steer hefty government contracts to donors and political allies such as former attorney general John Ashcroft, which sparked a congressional hearing. There was a defamation lawsuit brought against Christie, arising out of his successful 1994 run to oust an incumbent in a local Garden State race. Then there was Todd Christie [the governor’s brother], who in 2008 agreed to a settlement of civil charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission in which he acknowledged making ‘hundreds of trades in which customers had been systematically overcharged.’ (Todd also oversaw a family foundation whose activities and purpose raised eyebrows among the vetters.) And all of that was on top of a litany of glaring matters that sparked concern on [the Romney] team: Christie’s other lobbying clients; his investments overseas; the YouTube clips that helped make him a star but might call into doubt his presidential temperament; and the status of his health.â€
Christie’s large public entourage always includes a videographer who captures the governor’s frequent public humiliation of those—public school teachers are his favorite targets for ridicule—who have the audacity to question his judgment. These exchanges are immediately edited and uploaded to YouTube. There are now more than 600.
State politicians who do not kowtow before Christie receive acidic notes and emails. A former acting New Jersey governor, Richard J. Codey, after defying Christie abruptly lost his police escort. A state senator who angered the governor was denied a promised judgeship. A Rutgers professor and political scientist who declined to endorse Republican redistricting plans abruptly lost state funding for his program at the university.
Christie’s warped pathology, as is evidenced in this 2010 YouTube videoin which he belittles a public school teacher, is a source of pride for the governor and has made him a darling of the right-wingers who target those who teach the vast majority of American schoolchildren.
In another incident, Christie angrily shoutsto a man who had questioned his attacks on public school teachers: “You’re a real big shot. You’re a real big shot shooting your mouth off.†The man replies, “Nah, just take care of the teachers.†Christie, pushing his bulk before him and surrounded by his security detail, strides toward the man, who slowly backs away. “Keep walking away,†Christie says menacingly. “Really good. Keep walking.†The brief clip is a disturbing window into the governor’s vindictiveness, one that is augmented by access to power.
The visceral need by Christie to ridicule and threaten anyone who does not bow before him, his dark lust for revenge, his greed, gluttony and hedonism, his need to surround himself with large, fawning entourages and his obsequiousness to corporate power are characteristics our corporate titans embrace and understand. They see in Christie versions of themselves. They know he will enthusiastically do their dirty work. They trust him to be a real bastard. If Christie and the billionaires behind him take the presidency and begin to manipulate government agencies and pull the levers of our Stasi-like security and surveillance apparatus, any pretense of democracy will be gone.
Forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad walk with their weapons in the Aleppo town of Naqaren, after claiming to have regained control of the town, January 13, 2014.
REUTERS/George Ourfalian
BEIRUT (Reuters) – The Syrian government has retaken territory around the northern city of Aleppo, the military said on Tuesday, after two weeks of rebel infighting that has weakened the insurgency against President Bashar al-Assad.
The internecine conflict among various rebel groups will allow Assad to portray himself as the only secular alternative in Syria to a radical Islamist regime when peace talks begin in Switzerland on January 22.
His military advances will give the Syrian government delegation greater leverage at the negotiating table.
An army statement said government forces had pushed out from their base at Aleppo’s international airport, southeast of the city, and were moving towards an industrial complex used as a rebel base and the al-Bab road, needed by insurgents to supply the half of Aleppo under their control.
It said that government forces, along with militia loyal to Assad, were in “complete control†of the Naqareen, Zarzour, Taaneh and Subeihieh areas along the eastern side of Aleppo, which was the major Arab country’s commercial hub and most populous city before the conflict erupted in 2011.
In the past year, the Syrian government has pushed back at rebels across the country, besieging restive suburbs around the capital and pushing opposition fighters from towns near the Lebanese border and along the road linking Damascus to the coast.
Assad’s forces took ground in central Homs province and his forces regrouped as rebel rivalries grew. While the embattled leader avoided U.S. military strikes by agreeing to give up his chemical arsenal, his forces continue to bomb opposition territory from the air and using long-range artillery. But neither side appears to be able to break the overall deadlock.
While the army has been able to take some towns on the outskirts of Aleppo, rebels have held their ground in the districts of the city they entered in 2012 and the government has not made major advances in the urban areas where opposition fighters are dug in.
FOREIGN JIHADISTS
Fighting between the al Qaeda-linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and rival Islamists and more moderate rebels have killed hundreds of people over two weeks and shaken ISIL, a militant faction led by foreign jihadists.
But ISIL regrouped and retook much of its stronghold in the eastern city of Raqqa on Sunday from remnants of the Nusra Front, another al Qaeda affiliate although much more Syrian in makeup, and Islamist units called the Islamic Front.
ISIL took control of the town of al-Bab, east of Aleppo, from other rebels on Monday, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group.
The Observatory, which tracks Syria’s war using sources from both sides, said eight fighters from Ahrar al-Sham, a unit within the Islamic Front, were killed by an ISIL car bomb in the western province of Idlib just before midnight on Monday.
CIVIL WAR
Syria sank into civil war after a peaceful street uprising against four decades of Assad family rule began in March 2011. The revolt spiraled into an armed insurgency after the army responded with massive and deadly force to suppress the unrest.
As the fighting spread, better-armed hardline Islamists took the fore over more moderate Muslim and secular rebels, who are supported by Gulf Arab and Western nations.
Syria’s foreign ministry dismissed as “fantasy†statements by the pro-opposition Friends of Syria group – including Western and Gulf states – in Paris on Sunday that Assad was a war criminal and peace talks should end his “despotic regimeâ€.
“The Syrian Arab Republic is not surprised by what happened in Paris during the meeting of Syrian people’s enemies and the statements, which are closer to fantasy than reality,†the ministry said in a statement on Monday.
The World Food Programme delivered rations to a record 3.8 million people in Syria in December, but civilians in eastern provinces and besieged towns near the capital Damascus remain out of reach, a spokeswoman said on Tuesday.
The U.N. agency voiced concern at reports of malnutrition in besieged areas, especially of children caught up in the civil war, and called for greater access.
The official Kuwaiti news agency said non-governmental organizations had promised to donate a combined $400 million for humanitarian aid for Syria ahead of an international donor conference that will start in Kuwait on Wednesday.
(Additional reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva and Sylvia Westall in Kuwait, Editing by Mark Heinrich)
